British politics were dominated for three decades by the strong personalities of Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair, the faces of Conservative and Labor governments from 1979 until 2007. Totally different in approach and style, they dominated their parties with their personal political skills.
They confounded the theory that under a parliamentary system, policies and performance, not personality, should drive debates and elections.
Don’t bother telling that to Gordon Brown. The new British prime minister, selected by Labor this summer when Blair stepped down, had one of the briefest honeymoons on record. I watched it implode during a recent visit to Britain. He is reeling under attacks from opposition parties, a hostile media and an unexpectedly aggressive independence movement in Scotland.
Brown started strong, his government handling a banking crisis, terrorist incidents in London and Glasgow, and in general looking like the no-nonsense Scot who had earned respect as Blair’s chancellor of the exchequer.
He was riding high, buoyed by polls, and at Labor’s annual conference in September his backers widely talked of a “snap election,” a hastily called national vote to elect a new Parliament and (hopefully) give Brown a personal mandate. He must hold an election by 2010, but under the parliamentary system he can call it at any time, or be forced to call it by losing a vote of confidence in Parliament.
Had Brown lost a snap vote, he would have become the shortest-serving prime minister in British history. For someone who had waited 10 years for his opportunity and who seems naturally cautious, it was a chance too far. He dithered, procrastinated, and allowed Conservatives to steal the spotlight with their own annual conference and a strong television performance by leader David Cameron.
Cameron epitomizes the politics of today’s media. His background is in public relations, his skills are those of presentation (he delivered his conference speech without notes) and understanding today’s 24-hour news cycle. At first, he urged Brown to call the snap vote, although Brown had the upper hand. But when Cameron’s conference appearance produced a bounce in the polls (Conservatives 43 percent, Labor 36, Liberal Democrats 14), he went on offense, taunting Brown and forcing him to back down from a fall vote.
If that weren’t sufficiently embarrassing, Brown tripped over an old British land mine, the European Union. Britain has always been divided on the EU, and still refuses to adopt the euro as its currency. Labor, under Blair but with Brown on board, promised in 2005 to call a national referendum on the proposed EU Constitution. But, rejection by French and Dutch voters made a British vote unnecessary.
This year, however, EU leaders proposed a “treaty” similar to the defeated constitution, and Brown’s opponents and most of the British media pushed him to honor Labor’s 2005 pledge. Cameron, urged on by Rupert Murdoch’s The Sun, the biggest tabloid in the country, clamored for a vote. But, Brown met other EU leaders in mid-October and agreed to the treaty without calling a referendum, which might have rejected the treaty.
Brown’s decision found little media or public support, brought grumbling in his own party, and left him looking indecisive and defensive. Compared to the nimble Tony Blair, Brown looked dogged, determined but dull, marshaling complex arguments while his critics were trashing his image.
The ascent of the Scottish National Party to control of Scotland’s semi-independent government in May brought its separatist crusade to the fore, and forced Brown to emphasize his “Britishness” over his “Scottishness.” If Scotland were to secede, Labor would lose its most reliable voter base, including Brown’s own constituency in Fife. Separation, unlikely now, would advance if Tories return to power in Parliament.
Speaking to the Labor conference, he used the terms “British” or “Britain” 74 times. Now he’s in a wedge between his Scottish heritage and voters and Conservative anti-Scot “Little Englanders” to the south, with plenty of parochialism on both sides.
Hoping to benefit from the pile-on, Liberal Democrats, Britain’s perpetual third party, drove into retirement its respected 66-year-old leader, Menzies Campbell (another Scot), who unfortunately looked his age on television. The search for his replacement features two young men who look a lot like David Cameron and a lot unlike Gordon Brown.
Watching this develop, I felt for this dour Scot, so in need of charisma to combat the creations of 21st-century media. We’ve exported sound-bite politics to the world, something I’m not sure it needed. Brown may eventually prevail, but there’s sure to be a young Blair-Cameron waiting in the wings.Floyd J. McKay, a journalism professor emeritus at Western Washington University, is a regular contributor to Times editorial pages. E-mail him at floydmckay@yahoo.com